Roth IRAs: A Bad Idea?

I have a feeling this may turn out to be one of the most useful things I EVER post.David Collum is a professor at Cornell University and a wickedly funny financial pundit and sometime blogger. Perhaps more consistent and better than I on that count. ;) Each year since 2009 he has written an annual review of what he has found most important to him and his investing thesis. It's a great read. Google it.

Last year his think piece contained a discussion of Roth IRAs. He has an interesting take. In short, he believes they are a scam. I could re-characterize what he said but I found the whole argument so worthwhile that I am going to simply CUT AND PASTE IT and let you hear David and what he has to say, because by comparison to David I am a very poor writer. I did omit the numerous embedded citations though. Enjoy!

Roth IRA: A Bad Idea

Before leaving the world of pensions I’m gonna pick a fight with Roth IRAs. When the Roth IRA was first announced I had a unique—as in only-guy-on-the-planet unique—visceral response. The original IRA was very farsighted: Savers were allowed to compound wealth unfettered by taxes while the government deferred tax revenues to future generations. By contrast, the Roth IRA pulled tax revenues forward, leaving future generations to take a hike. Imagine the truly awesome demographic problems we would have if the Roth had been introduced in the 60s and the entire baby boom generation became entirely tax exempt. Was this an oversight? I don’t think so. The introduction of the Roth and the substantial revenues from regular-to-Roth rollovers coincided with the Clinton administration’s efforts to balance the on-balance-sheet Federal budget for the first time in decades. That is my minor gripe. To set up my really big gripe we must first dispel a widely held misconception and a common oversight.  In a regular IRA, the money is taxed at the end, whereas in a Roth IRA taxes are levied up front. If the two are taxed at the same rate—this is a critical provision—the outcome is identical. They are not just similar, it’s an identity. Break out your calculator if you must. There is no differential advantage offered by compounding in the Roth over the regular IRA. Simply put: Any advantage of the Roth IRA relative to a regular IRA necessarily stems from a lower tax rate while working than in retirement. Period/full stop.  The tax rates of the Roth and regular IRAs are fundamentally different: Roth IRA: Front-end loaded taxes paid at the marginal tax rate (highest tax bracket). Regular IRA: Back-end loaded taxes paid at the effective tax rate (integrated over all tax brackets). The distinction of marginal versus effective tax rate is critical and seems to be lacking from most analyses. One can calculate marginal and effective rates for any income online.  Let’s return to the top-5-percentile family—the 5 percenter. If they had used a regular IRA, they would be paying a 7% effective tax rate incurred on their $48,000 per year withdrawal in retirement. They paid an approximate 32% marginal tax rate—the tax rate at the top bracket—to shelter a few thousand per year in a Roth IRA. The numbers simply do not work. It is worse than that. Let us consider the lucky soul family—the extraordinarily rare couple—who actually accrued 25 annual salaries in their retirement account. For this family a 4% annual withdrawal will be equal to an annual salary while working, placing them in the same tax bracket (ignoring unknowable tax law changes). Even so, they paid 32% marginal tax on the Roth to avoid a 22% effective tax rate incurred by the regular IRA. The numbers still don’t work. I do not understand why the Roth is being sold so enthusiastically to the public. Now ponder all those folks who rolled over a lump sum from a regular to a Roth IRA. They not only paid the marginal tax rate on the rollover but caused the marginal rate to spike to a higher level! It’s hard to imagine that will prove to be a smart move. Congress is considering moving all pension funds to what is effectively Roth IRA rules as part of their Fiscal Cliff negotiations. You young guys are about to get hosed.

It didn't happen but Congress WAS entertaining that last idea. Is it coming? I don't know but it's a huge watch out. Anyway, a great take on Roth IRAs and a valuable counterpoint to all the financial planners and brokers who eagerly pushed their clients into the Roth orbit in The Great Roth Asset Collection of 2011/2012 that we discussed before.